Dubai fever has hit the markets. Most Asian markets are down anywhere from 1-4% today. How would that impact global economies going forward? For example, are gold prices going to head higher? would Oil go lower? Would real estate go lower?

We need to wait and see.

Sensex has been alternating between positive and negative zones during the week. However, it is well supported at the 16,400 level, a good sign from a statistical standpoint.

During the weekend, the Prime Minister indicated that the stimulus plans will be backed out in the next calendar year. So people anxiously waited how the market sentiment would be. Some people felt that withdrawal is too premature. Others felt that is a positive sign that the economy is heading out of the woods. Looks like the market supported the later school of thought.

We need to see how the next few sessions fare.

India’s Reserve Bank bought 200 tonnes of Gold from IMF. The $6.7B buy might have surprised many. Exactly a decade ago, federal banks across the globe moved away from gold reserves causing the gold to fall heavily. Now the world seems to be moving in the other direction.

The gold prices are hitting the roof time and again. Consumer gold prices have almost doubled in about a couple of years, as far as I can remember. The price of Rs 8300 is frowned upon, in the second half of 2007. Now the prices are hovering around double that figure.

Sensex bounced back heavily on Wednesday, further indicating the volatility in the market. A 500 point surge right after a day of 500 point fall is not a good indication. However, this might indicate a strong support for the index at the 15K range.

A nosedive of Sensex close to 500 points is the highlight  of the day. The better than expected news from India’s automobile sector couldn’t make any positive effect on this dive. I think there is not enough confidence to hold the index above 16000 mark, at least for now.

Sensex dived two and a quarter percentage points today. This is despite good results posted recently by banking sector. The markets took RBI’s monetary policy review not so kindly.

Gartner says global IT spend to increase 3.3% in the next year. IMO, it is good but not good enough.

After hitting the sub-10k levels about an year ago, Dow stayed in below 10K all this time. Only in the last couple of trading days, it started staying closer to 10k. Is this a good enough news or not yet? What do you think?

For 3 consecutive trading days, BSE Sensex posted a 200+ point rally. In terms of percentages, it is at least 1.2% every day. This kind of rally might turn out to be dangerous.

The important factors to watch (especially when in India) are the increasing gold price ($1060+ an ounce) and falling dollar price. That means the gold price is relatively stable, but may skyrocket of dollar strenthens.

A couple of interesting metrics observed today

• Car sales in India rose by about 21% Y-Y this September.
• HDFC Q2 net up 24%

These are interesting numbers, the metrics that are opposite of global economies. Is India’s economy really out of woods? Or are people presuming recovery prematurely?